Did the Geekazine 2008 Predictions Come True?
This is actually part 1 of a 2-part story. This first part reviews the predictions I made last year and how far off I was. Part 2 will have this years predictions, including predictions from CEO’s CTO’s TechPodcasters and even a Psychic.
So without any further ado, let’s pick apart my idiocy from last year:
OLPC will have some growing pains. The first part of OLPC will be the easiest. Maintaining the machines will be the trick. Microsoft coming onboard will muddy the water, but they might be able to do things like offer a better support network to third world countries.
OLPC all but stalled. Amazon is threatening to pull out of selling the machines. It does not look that promising for this project.
Internet Service will get faster. Support will get slower. Comcast expects 160gbps transfer by mid 2008. This will make the internet “blaze” and information pass through faster than you can blink an eye. However, it’s like I always say – “You only go as fast as your slowest connection.” Routers, Modems, computers are all possible bottlenecks. They may inhibit us to see the increase in speed. It will cause a lot of headaches and support lines may be flooded with “Why is my connection still slow?” calls.
I was somewhat right on this. Who would have guessed that the Bottleneck would be Comcast and a 250 Gig cap?
Video demand will have to be addressed. Even with a faster internet, there is a lot of question whether some video sites can hold up to the cost of the bandwidth they are using. For a couple companies, it may be best to plan advancing the technologies in Video Streaming so their company can be “Sellable”. I don’t expect YouTube or MySpaceTV to go away. HOWEVER:
The first Programmed internet TV station will appear. I am surprised this hasn’t happened yet. Face it – some people don’t like to have to search for content to watch. They just like to turn on the TV and let it go. The problem with Online Video is that there is no structure. So why not take the content and program a schedule for streaming?
Although the first IPTV did not really show up, I have no doubt its on it’s way. People still want a “boob-tube” where they don’t have to think of what to watch, just sit down and watch. We did have to address the bandwidth issue. Ads on video has become more aggressive which has some people in an uproar.
People will start to “Detach” from the Net in a way. With Smart phones, cars with Wi-Fi and other handy appliances, we will see users get away from the computers and do more in their devices – Download content and go.
iPhone power users are in a class by themselves. They use the internet in some interesting ways. I think I was on the money with this one.
City Wi-Fi will be re-evaluated and implemented. This idea had problems moving forward in 07. However with new devices requiring connection to a network, City Wi-Fi will be more of a demand than a desire.
No City Wi-Fi yet. Next year, but it will be Wi-MAX
Social Networking will be scrutinized. There’s a lot of people “Speaking their minds” right now. This can turn the internet into a wasteland quickly (if it hasn’t already). New sites pop up daily and some don’t stay current – even though their intention was to do so. The passing of personal data will always be a concern and some companies will compromise that data. CAPCHA2 will be implemented because of CAPCHA’s compromise.
Wow. Totally off base on this one. There will be a day where we will have “Dead-sites” impede on what we are looking for. Just didn’t happen last year.
Google and Yahoo will have to come to harsh realities. When you try to put your hands into too many pots, you find the soup doesn’t always taste that good. Google might have to take a step back on some of the products they are developing and focus on the items they excel in. Yahoo tried to already do that and they stepped back already. Yahoo will have to re-evaluate some of their practices or else people will make the move away.
Yes on Yahoo, No on Google – but coming soon.
Apple or PC? Home machines will definitely be a mixed environment. Unfortunately for the business market, they will most likely stick with what they have. To make a wide scale change to another system is too costly and could inhibit production. It doesn’t mean that Apple shouldn’t try. However, they will have to concern themselves with Directory structures and permissions.
Although Apple has picked up some steam, this is pretty much the case. It would take a major effort to switch from PC to Apple. Businesses are just not going to do that overnight.
SSD becomes affordable, Quad-core SSD machines will arrive. A laptop with a high performance desktop feel will have people salivating. 32 gig SSD cards might not cut it for some, but couple that with a 120 gig Hard drive and you will have a decent machine. Another possibility would be to develop SSD Raid; Four -32 gig drives become 128 gig. Power should still remain low, speed will increase and data recovery on laptops will be easy.
Both have shown up. SSD has not impacted the IT community just yet. That will change.
HD DVD vs Blu Ray. This fight will get old. No winner will fully emerge. Sorry.
I was proven wrong on this one within 1 week. Ouch! Black eye on me…
Solar Power will be more affordable and introduced in different ways. In the last month alone, solar panels and Li-On batteries have advanced. Maybe next years’ laptops will have a solar panel on the cover? 20-30 hour laptops in dark rooms?
While there is no solar panel covered laptop, we have made some strides in Solar power. And yes, we did come up with a cheaper panel.
Unified Communications. This technology has already been implemented in some businesses, but not to this scale we will see in 08. People will expect to go to one appliance for all their information – email, voicemail and faxes. Smart phones can easily download a pdf – so why not have fax support on a Smart phone? Once 32 and 64 gig SSD chips integrate into the phones, we will be able to store a lot on the phone.
Slowly but surely this is happening. The days of PBX are numbered. And don’t call me Shirley.
Green will grow. 2008 will see a decrease in energy consumption. I know there needs to be a lot do make that happen. But with faster, cooler and lower powered machines and development of things like solar energy; the Green movement will see reductions in some areas. As a whole, power consumption will still increase, but it won’t do so as fast.
On the money with this one. The Green movement is moving, albeit at a slower pace than expected.
The Office will change. With the last few predictions, one thing businesses will do to cut energy – and other costs – will be to let more people work from home offices.
This is an individual win/loss. Some have made it home while other are still stuck in an office.
Mars Asteroid on 1-08 might give insight into any future Earth collision. Further, we don’t know how the asteroid will affect Mars. Most likely it will move some ground around. What if it was to change Mars’ orbit pattern ever so slightly? There will be a lot of plans to get technology on the Red planet to monitor the changes that occur – if any changes occur at all.
I think we got more info from the Mars Rover than anything. We’ll call that a no.
So I didn’t do too bad for last years predictions. But wait. 2009’s predictions are coming soon. I am finalizing the list of submitters and will have the 2009 predictions out in the next day or two. Stay tuned…