Geekazine and Friends 2009 Predictions
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In Part 1, we looked at last years predictions. The numbers weren’t too shabby. This year, we’ve expanded the list to anyone that wanted to contribute. And Contributions I did get. 250 of them.
I spent most of Friday night and subsequent morning filtering the list to a couple pages worth of information. We have CEO’s, CTO’s, Marketers, Podcasters and even a Psychic helping us with this years list.
Of course at the end of the list I will be adding my 2 cents worth for 2009 on Page 2. So without any further ado, let’s get started.
Metroethernet in WAN – We will see a move to metroethernet and managed services. This is already happening in EMEA but we will see the trend develop in North America. Service providers will have to look at how to generate revenue. In addition, the bandwidth scaling required by video, SaaS, and cloud computing will drive organizations to demand new access solutions to enable these transformational technologies to be used effectively.
– Phil Edholm, CTO Nortel’s Enterprise Networks group
Smartphones get pushed to non-Management in the organization as companies discover that employees will respond to email and do work when on their own time with just a little bit of technology in their hands.
Home offices become the norm as companies push the cost of having employees off their books.
– Pat McGrew, EDP, Eastman Kodak Company
Despite the industry’s false hope otherwise, online advertising will not be recession-proof — including Google’s paid search ads — and will take a major hit in 2009.
– Mark Glaser, Executive editor, PBS MediaShift
Web-native SaaS applications and faster wireless networks will justify enterprise adoption of the iPhone and other Web-enabled mobile devices.
Employees request IT self-service capabilities and IT professionals have the tools to give them what they want.
– Fred Luddy, CEO, Service-now.com
A whole new range of iphones/pda’s/cell phones for the Boomers with big buttons and size 36 font! (i.e. easy to read
– Jodi Womack, www.WomackCompany.com
Cloud computing accelerates its domination of new application deployments, and we begin to see existing enterprise apps move to the cloud. We now have a broad menu of cloud offerings at all levels of the stack – basic “root level” from amazon web services or gogrid to lightweight app frameworks like bungee to full-fledged enterprise ready, secure, heavy-duty app frameworks like force.com. Server vendors will see orders from anyone other than cloud providers dry up; virtualization software and cheap servers will dominate. Traditional colo providers will get into the cloud business themselves or suffer greatly (or both)
– Oren Michels, CEO, Mashery
Many developers will shift from Facebook to Twitter, creating games that work with the Twitter users. This will be synced with more people joining Twitter, and the company gaining more venture capital.
– Ari Herzog, Online media strategist to business and government
We may see “Open Government Data” become the de facto standard in demand by an increasing number of civil societies
A number of trends suggest that critical mass for location-based services (such as search) may be at hand:
- -GPS receivers are becoming quite affordable and they even come built-in to other devices, such as mobile phones.
- -EXIF and XMP both support longitude/latitude now and there is a choice of software that does interesting things with photos that are thus tagged with their location.
- -Vcard address data can contain longitude/latitude information (which is thus also available in HTML via the hCard microformat).
- -The geo microformat is under development to allow HTML pages as a whole to be linked to a particular location on earth.
- -Google Earth is becoming useful as a tool to search for location-dependent information (photos, wikipedia articles, etc.); soon it will have so much information that it will need a new interface/concept to filter the less useful data.
- -Sites such as eventful.com allow searches based on distance.
– Ian Jacobs, W3C communications
– Jim Hemmer, CEO, Antenna Software
– Tony Bishop, CEO, Adaptivity
Telephones – more and more people will be relying on the mobile phones for more than their household needs (ie: using them as cameras, video cams, TV’s and more). Landlines will slowly be decreasing, as cell phones are on the rise. Unfortunately more solicitation calls will be streaming through. It will take time to get this part of the cell phone era cleared up. Video Camera’s will be slowly disappearing as I-Phone’s increase.
Computers – Use caution – more viruses are being released in 2009. They are going to be hidden in what seems like legit emails – I caution everyone not to open emails unless they know the sender. Especially if there are attachments. There will be many dangerous virus’ in 2009 – beware. Use caution if Obama is in the subject line. Mac/Apple will be lowering their costs and become more competitive to Microsoft. Sales will go up for Apple for 2009.
– Jill Dahne, Psychic, www.jilldahne.com
When the exploitation of a website and its users proves to be anything other than super simple, online miscreants will pay for the opportunity through malicious advertisements and Web widgets. A few hundred dollars buys easy access to potential victims where websites owners have no comprehensive way to defend themselves or their unsuspecting users.
The more confident, subtle, and less sophisticated digital criminals will increasingly look to Business Logic Flaws to defraud online businesses often without them even realizing it. Getting away with five, six, and seven figure sums is not unheard of, but we should expect it to become more common motivated by troubled economy.
– Jeremiah Grossman, CTO, WhiteHat Security
LIVE drives VIRAL and VIRAL drives LIVE: LIVE and VIRAL have a symbiotic relationship. Live is more virulent because it’s event based. Live events like a Taylor Swift live web chat or the immediacy around a community of millions watching LIVE gives us something to talk about, something to share — a vehicle by which we disseminate our message throughout the viral internet. In return, the viral internet brings viewers back to the live event.
Proven Scale will matter MORE: With high profile live events like Google serving the RNC through Ustream, rock solid technology and infrastructure will continue to be critical. When you have millions of people at the same place, at the same time, watching the same thing, you will need a solution that has proven scale with a scale stress test.
– John Ham, CEO Ustream.tv
Mobile Broadband Proliferation: According to the Cellular Telephone Industry Association (CTIA), mobile data usage in the US grew 42.5% in the 12 months ending June 2008. Likewise, by 2011 the number of mobile broadband users will exceed fixed broadband users. In response, carriers have started working more closely with telecommunications providers to optimize their mobile broadband infrastructures. Over the next 12 months, carriers will move pilot programs to execution mode in a new era of mobile broadband. Operators will favor equipment providers who can deliver end-to-end mobile and fixed solutions.
– Georges Antoun, CEO, Redback Networks
Microsoft will acquire Yahoo, and will release a new pay-per-click advertising platform that is a legitimate competitor to AdWords.
Microsoft will announce a free, ad-supported SaaS office suite.
– Chris Basham, President, http://www.trackvia.com
– Andy Steggles CIO, Risk and Insurance Management Society, Inc. (RIMS)
Video via the Internet, or “IPTV,” will continue to increase, and set-top boxes for Internet viewing will increase in general acceptance instead of just being a “geek toy.”
Smart-phones will become many people’s platform of choice for Internet surfing as phones like the iPhone and Blackberry Storm become more “the norm.”
– Dr. Bill Bailey, Podcaster, www.DrBillBailey.NET
The Flexible LCD screen Cellphone will at least see a prototype model if not go into production and take the US by storm, you know you guys love your flip phones.
Palm will go out of business or merge with another platform
– Ewen, Podcaster, BagelTechNews
On the next page, I will be giving my predictions for 2009.