It’s that time of year again. The 3rd annual Geekazine yearly predictions are coming in. People are letting me know what they think will happen in 2010, along with my thoughts.
But before we get to 2010, we want to see how well we did for 2009. So here it is: Last years’ predictions and what actually happened.
Green Technology –Green IT will continue to be a focus for the enterprise, not only because of green issues, but also because of the cost of power. For the first time, businesses are really looking at their energy consumption and examining where they consume energy in the network. To reduce energy costs, enterprises will focus on virtualization in the data center and on Power Efficient Ethernet (PEE).Metroethernet in WAN – We will see a move to metroethernet and managed services. This is already happening in EMEA but we will see the trend develop in North America. Service providers will have to look at how to generate revenue. In addition, the bandwidth scaling required by video, SaaS, and cloud computing will drive organizations to demand new access solutions to enable these transformational technologies to be used effectively.
Social Systems in the Workplace – The adoption of IM and presence is opening the door to more social networking to enter the workplace. Technologies once thought of in the “play” space such as virtual environments will begin to see adoption into the “work” world. As the requirements for user acceptance are different, these new iterations of social technologies will be optimized for the work world.
Phil kept things general, and although the Green Technology is continually happening, I don’t think we reached the Metroethernet nor the Workplace Social Systems just yet. They are still in infancy, so these things will be true eventually. For now, we sit and wait.
More companies who must send bills and statements to customers discover that selling ad space on bills and statements can cover the cost of postage… might impact some direct mail spend, but almost guarantees the envelope gets opened and ad is read.Smartphones get pushed to non-Management in the organization as companies discover that employees will respond to email and do work when on their own time with just a little bit of technology in their hands.Home offices become the norm as companies push the cost of having employees off their books.– Pat McGrew, EDP, Eastman Kodak Company
Billing hasn’t changed. More companies are adopting a paperless option, but I think I recieved more junk
Apple will come out with a cheap $99 iPhone that will dominate the smartphone market.A major breaking news story will be captured with someone’s camera phone, making sites like CNN’s iReport and BBC‘s Have Your Say even more popular.Despite the industry’s false hope otherwise, online advertising will not be recession-proof — including Google’s paid search ads — and will take a major hit in 2009.– Mark Glaser, Executive editor, PBS MediaShift
Application service providers (ASPs) will die a second death when customers realize their offerings are not really SaaS and have nothing to do with cloud computing.Web-native SaaS applications and faster wireless networks will justify enterprise adoption of the iPhone and other Web-enabled mobile devices.
Employees request IT self-service capabilities and IT professionals have the tools to give them what they want.
– Fred Luddy, CEO, Service-now.com
Mac steps up to be THE Small Business Productivity Tool – the Mac suite of laptop, iphone, genius support and Cloud computing enables a whole new crowd of entrepreneurs & solopreneurs to work globally.A whole new range of iphones/pda’s/cell phones for the Boomers with big buttons and size 36 font! (i.e. easy to read
– Jodi Womack, www.WomackCompany.com
It is the year of the API. 2008 saw market leaders such as the New York Times, MTV, NPR and Best Buy lead the way for traditional “old media” or “brick and mortar” companies to open web services APIs to third parties; I expect to see dozens of followers in the media and retail spaces follow.Cloud computing accelerates its domination of new application deployments, and we begin to see existing enterprise apps move to the cloud. We now have a broad menu of cloud offerings at all levels of the stack – basic “root level” from amazon web services or gogrid to lightweight app frameworks like bungee to full-fledged enterprise ready, secure, heavy-duty app frameworks like force.com. Server vendors will see orders from anyone other than cloud providers dry up; virtualization software and cheap servers will dominate. Traditional colo providers will get into the cloud business themselves or suffer greatly (or both)
– Oren Michels, CEO, Mashery
The first six months of the Obama Administration will be shaky, as the new media team experiments with different formats of video sharing, public commenting, and blogging. The next six months will set the stage for how change.gov becomes whitehouse.gov in 2010.Many developers will shift from Facebook to Twitter, creating games that work with the Twitter users. This will be synced with more people joining Twitter, and the company gaining more venture capital.
– Ari Herzog, Online media strategist to business and government
Blogs about data visualization are popping up everywhere, and we are seeing more software with easy to understand syntax.We may see “Open Government Data” become the de facto standard in demand by an increasing number of civil societies
A number of trends suggest that critical mass for location-based services (such as search) may be at hand:
- -GPS receivers are becoming quite affordable and they even come built-in to other devices, such as mobile phones.
- -EXIF and XMP both support longitude/latitude now and there is a choice of software that does interesting things with photos that are thus tagged with their location.
- -Vcard address data can contain longitude/latitude information (which is thus also available in HTML via the hCard microformat).
- -The geo microformat is under development to allow HTML pages as a whole to be linked to a particular location on earth.
- -Google Earth is becoming useful as a tool to search for location-dependent information (photos, wikipedia articles, etc.); soon it will have so much information that it will need a new interface/concept to filter the less useful data.
- -Sites such as eventful.com allow searches based on distance.
– Ian Jacobs, W3C communications
Mobile IM Ready for Takeoff. Facebook. MySpace. Twitter. These social media platforms have a huge user-base in a generation of graduates who are storming the workforce and these and other social media tools will make inroads into the corporate world. But those efforts will likely prove experimental and niche. What isn’t, is the infiltration of IM into the workplace. IM has clearly made its mark on the enterprise at the desktop and we foresee this will start to spill over to the mobile world to enable a simpler and more efficient form of collaboration and communications.– Jim Hemmer, CEO, Antenna Software
Hybrid Cloud: Short and sweet – everything you knew about data center consolidation and operation methodology will merge. We’re predicting the convergence of SOA, utility computing, Real-Time Infrastructure (RTI) and virtualization into a hybrid cloud offering – a dynamic shift that will call for extra organization in the data center.– Tony Bishop, CEO, Adaptivity
HDTV will do wonders for the world of technology in 2009. It will bring clarity into the home across America with a new vision that will bring us into the future. It is only the beginning and there will be major breakthroughs that will stem from HDTV.Telephones – more and more people will be relying on the mobile phones for more than their household needs (ie: using them as cameras, video cams, TV’s and more). Landlines will slowly be decreasing, as cell phones are on the rise. Unfortunately more solicitation calls will be streaming through. It will take time to get this part of the cell phone era cleared up. Video Camera’s will be slowly disappearing as I-Phone’s increase.Computers – Use caution – more viruses are being released in 2009. They are going to be hidden in what seems like legit emails – I caution everyone not to open emails unless they know the sender. Especially if there are attachments. There will be many dangerous virus’ in 2009 – beware. Use caution if Obama is in the subject line. Mac/Apple will be lowering their costs and become more competitive to Microsoft. Sales will go up for Apple for 2009.
– Jill Dahne, Psychic, www.jilldahne.com
Websites will continue to be targeted by mass scale SQL Injection attacks, littering back-end databases with Web browser based malware, designed to infect their online websites — and that is only if we are really lucky and the bad guys stop there. It is entirely possible for Cross-Site Scripting and Cross-Site Request Forgery, which remain two of the most prevalent website vulnerabilities, to be leveraged to an increasingly large extent.When the exploitation of a website and its users proves to be anything other than super simple, online miscreants will pay for the opportunity through malicious advertisements and Web widgets. A few hundred dollars buys easy access to potential victims where websites owners have no comprehensive way to defend themselves or their unsuspecting users.
The more confident, subtle, and less sophisticated digital criminals will increasingly look to Business Logic Flaws to defraud online businesses often without them even realizing it. Getting away with five, six, and seven figure sums is not unheard of, but we should expect it to become more common motivated by troubled economy.
– Jeremiah Grossman, CTO, WhiteHat Security
2009 is the “Year of LIVE.” The use of Live streaming as a social media tool will continue to grow, and prove to be an invaluable solution for individuals and companies around the world looking to reach their online communities in innovative ways. The emotional connection formed by seeing it happen Live versus recorded is a compelling frontier in social media marketing.LIVE drives VIRAL and VIRAL drives LIVE: LIVE and VIRAL have a symbiotic relationship. Live is more virulent because it’s event based. Live events like a Taylor Swift live web chat or the immediacy around a community of millions watching LIVE gives us something to talk about, something to share — a vehicle by which we disseminate our message throughout the viral internet. In return, the viral internet brings viewers back to the live event.
Proven Scale will matter MORE: With high profile live events like Google serving the RNC through Ustream, rock solid technology and infrastructure will continue to be critical. When you have millions of people at the same place, at the same time, watching the same thing, you will need a solution that has proven scale with a scale stress test.
– John Ham, CEO Ustream.tv
More Functionality at the Edge Leads to Cost Savings from Equipment Consolidation: Less will definitely be more in 2009, as operators look for ways to minimize hardware investments while maintaining highly scalable and flexible networks. For example, rather than purchasing and managing separate devices for edge routing, Ethernet aggregation and subscriber management, carriers are opting for multi-service devices that integrate various functionality into a single routing platform. We expect this trend will continue gaining momentum into next year.Mobile Broadband Proliferation: According to the Cellular Telephone Industry Association (CTIA), mobile data usage in the US grew 42.5% in the 12 months ending June 2008. Likewise, by 2011 the number of mobile broadband users will exceed fixed broadband users. In response, carriers have started working more closely with telecommunications providers to optimize their mobile broadband infrastructures. Over the next 12 months, carriers will move pilot programs to execution mode in a new era of mobile broadband. Operators will favor equipment providers who can deliver end-to-end mobile and fixed solutions.
– Georges Antoun, CEO, Redback Networks
Google will announce that its newest version of the android phone is available for free, and that it works with any network.Microsoft will acquire Yahoo, and will release a new pay-per-click advertising platform that is a legitimate competitor to AdWords.
Microsoft will announce a free, ad-supported SaaS office suite.
– Chris Basham, President, http://www.trackvia.com
2008 was all about social networking and social media. I really think the buzz of 2009 is going to focus around engagement – how to measure, generate and reward… ultimately great engagement will produce positive results albeit by increased purchasing, members, donations or whatever you’re focused on.– Andy Steggles CIO, Risk and Insurance Management Society, Inc. (RIMS)
Linux will continue to make in-roads on the desktop as “netbooks” become more popular.Video via the Internet, or “IPTV,” will continue to increase, and set-top boxes for Internet viewing will increase in general acceptance instead of just being a “geek toy.”
Smart-phones will become many people’s platform of choice for Internet surfing as phones like the iPhone and Blackberry Storm become more “the norm.”
– Dr. Bill Bailey, Podcaster, www.DrBillBailey.NET
Apple will deliver one more iPhone at 64Gb or more before Q4 2009The Flexible LCD screen Cellphone will at least see a prototype model if not go into production and take the US by storm, you know you guys love your flip phones.
Palm will go out of business or merge with another platform
– Ewen, Podcaster, BagelTechNews
Sorry Ewen – Palm is still around and Apple pretty much put out enhancements, but no new ideas.
On the next page, I will be giving my predictions for 2009.
Here were my predictions:
Yugo (Yahoo) – There is something about Carl ICahn that I cannot figure out. He’s definitely poising himself for something, most likely in his best interest. It’s also very interesting that they have not chosen a successor to CEO yet. I would guess this is something you don’t want to lollygag on. If I was a stockholder, I would be very upset. That is why I say if Yahoo does not choose a CEO by the end of Q1, Carl ICahn will broker a deal to split Yahoo. If anyone needs the search, it would be cuil, however, if they also purchased the email, they would be better off than they are now.
A split did happen, but not to the way I expected. Still, Yahoo doesn’t own search anymore – Microsoft has that stock.
Google – Google is going somewhat strong now and will continue into 2009. It would take a big rock to smash this house of cards. Ad revenues will dwindle for a little while, but I have no doubt that online advertising will get a new direction. A direction that will be less annoying to the consumer.
With more people spending more time on the internet, advertising should thrive. The amount of websites out there will double, which will make ranking more important. Nonetheless, Google has many different aspects to fall back on. Right now Gmail, for example, does not have 1 ad on it’s page. The more people start using Gmail, the easier the revenue if they put 1 unobtrusive ad on.
Google grew in ways I didn’t expect. I only scratched the surface on this one.
Microsoft – I have no doubt by Q2, Vista will finally be working well and become accepted on most computers. Nonetheless, XP will continue to be extended until December 31st, 2009. After that, support will end.
Kinda true. XP SP2 will end support. SP3 will go next year.
Apple – If Apple moves into the netbook range, they will outsource it. However why would they want to take away from their iPhone sales? By the end of the year, all Macs will have the same ingrediants as the current Macbook – making Apple the greenest computer.
Apple will also restructure how they present. I will not comment on Steve Jobs health, but I have no doubt Apple will start looking at a successor. In the Meantime, Apple will hold more “Town Halls” – about 4 a year. This is where people will get their new information. The ONLY exception would be if Apple decided to join CES in 2010. Could you imagine the Keynote of CES “Stevenote”?
iPhone – Everyone is saying “$99” dollar 4 gig iPhone. Unless it’s an iPhone nano, I don’t think that will happen. Apple doesn’t move backwards. I would guess they are going to announce at least a 32 Gig iPhone, which will move the 8 and 16 gig models down $50. Yes – only $50. Knowing what I know about Apple pricing of products (which is 2-3 times higher than other companies), I think a $100 price drop is not acceptable to them.
Partially true: the 8 gig is $99. Apple has reeled in their events, but I think the rumor mill has stirred up too many times.
Smartphones- Palm will jump out the gate with the new Nova OS. Depending on the public response, either Palm will survive another year, or die a quick death. The reason why I said “die a quick death” because companies have tried to buy Palm before, including Apple. Palm has no value to another company – their patents are old technology and their customer base is sparse.
Meanwhile, I am looking for Windows PC to finally come out swinging with their OS. Maybe an integration between the Windows PC OS and the Zune OS. Finally show that Windows is working toward a Zune phone?
Android will also get some major push this year. The G1 was not a good design, but the Lenovo oPhone looks pretty impressive. HTC will also come back and put Android on a better design – which will drive interest.
Blackberry will make the fixes needed to the Storm to turn it into a decent alternative. However, since Apple holds patents to certain technologies, iPhone will still be the leader due to it’s functionality.
Palm stayed, Windows PC didn’t live up to my expectations, Android (or should I say “Droid”) has made some advances and Blackberry still has it’s fanbase.
Green – The move will be toward room design rather than server consolidation. With multi-core processors, we’ve already made some good strides to take less power. An SSD Raid farm will be designed to replace older SCSI Farms.
No SSD Raid farm just yet. Might have to save this one for next year.
Hardware: Processors- Intel and AMD will hit a brick wall. Multi-core processors are the rage right now, but the problem will be getting the Applications to utilize the multi-cores. Still, we’ve been side-stepping the reality and that is going to 64 bit technology. Nonetheless, we will have another “Race” between the two companies to see who can make the better, faster processor. This will get AMD in trouble with their stockholders yet again.
Hardware: SSD – SSD will continue to push forward. The first commercially affordable SSD will get consumers interested in the technology (BTW – under $99 is what I concider “Commercially affordable”). SSD will have it’s problems as standard IDE and SCSI drives still have a better life span right now. SSD will need to develop a new technology that allows the drive to still function if one part of the memory fails. Then they should patent it.
Hardware: Notebooks and Netbooks– I think we will have some great innovations here. Lenovo just came out with the “Dual monitor Laptop”. Although this is great, the focus will definitely be on Netbooks. However, the concern with those will be the screen size. To counter, netbooks will start making docking stations to connect your netbook to a monitor, keyboard and mouse easily.
Hardware: HDTV – It’s been a long time since Television made a major change. February 17th will be a monumental date. Some people still won’t know what happened. Others will throw away their TV and embrace the computer. With that, they will be getting more HDTV’s. Not for the TV end, but the computer end.
Another thing that will happen is how advertising is pushed. I am still waiting for the first IPTV – a station that broadcasts 24/7 on the internet. And it’s not “Choice programming” either. Sure, they might have surveys on the site asking if they should keep the show or not, but you will still have Show A at 8 PM on Sundays, followed by Show B. Commercials in between.
One thing I would like to see with HDTV is a button on the bottom of the screen. When the user pushes it, a chat room for that specific show will pop up. They can then chat with others about the show. Kinda like what happens with Cops 2.0.
Hardware: Gaming Systems – Sony will see the brunt of the system wars. With Wii popularity, Sony will have to do some re-thinking to get Playstation 3’s into the home. Some say a price drop will do that (which I believe will happen), but the better thing would be to sell an HDTV – PS3 combo. Since the PS3 is a decent Blu-Ray player and internet browser, combining the two will get people interested – especially since it means less cords at the Entertainment center.
XBox will also have to do something to counter the Wii. The XBox 720 is too far away and Microsoft already said they will not adopt Blu-Ray. I think it’s the one advantage Sony has right now. XBox will continue to focus on their XBox LIVE, which might just cause problems with Comcast. Therefore, Microsoft will broker a deal with the Capped ISP’s so the Cap somehow does not apply to XBox Live.
Waited for all the Hardware to update. These ideas have stayed pretty complacent. HDTV’s have been replacing the CRT in home, but not as fast as I thought. Gaming systems have taken newer approaches and everyone is poising to become an Entertainment hub.
ISPs – We are going to start to see a major shift in how we get internet. With 3G here and WiMax approaching, our habits will shift away from the standard desktop. The phone will be helpful, but the laptops and netbooks will be most usefull. Right now, I am on a laptop at a coffee shop writing this article. I want to have that same mobility without restriction – after all, isn’t restricted mobility an oxymoron?
One thing to consider is that some people might axe their ISP to save money. If you have a mobile device and the ability to go to the coffee shop or glaum off your neighbors’ Wi-fi, then why pay $30-60 a month?
We did see some changes in ISPs, but nothing major.
Cloud Computing – As much as people want this to happen, it’s still a long way off. It won’t stop people from making their own “Clouds”. Companies will create their own in which a employee can access via web browser. The best part of doing it this way is the employee doesn’t store the data locally. That way there is less chance of the employee stealing the data.
Will next year be CC’s day?
New Technology – With more and more unemployment, we might find more people trying to “make it on their own”. They always say that a new idea was usually thought up by many other people before it was created or invented. I can even remember some ideas I came up with that are products now.
Learning will be the key – people wanting to take classes and learn new trades. Since they have the time, they will do it.
People have been blogging more, but not for money – more to kill time. Learning has gone up, though.
Software: Games – Last year, Grand Theft Auto IV put in their games a technology for you to buy the song playing. This will be more prevalent in the games to come. After all, some people like to buy movie memorabilia. Why not game memorabilia straight from the game? For that matter, why not movie Memorabilia from the Movie? Maybe some older Rock or Country Song? That’s why we’re seeing a “Guitar Hero Metallica”. Don’t expect that fad to end anytime soon.
Software: Applications – Like I said, we are a ways away from Cloud computing. It won’t stop programs from making the software to use as a gateway to the cloud. Kind of like a “Stairway to Heaven…” This might also lead to better customization of programs and adaptation to new technologies.
SPAM and Malware – Well, unfortunately, this won’t go away anytime soon. In 2008 we made some great strides to lower the amount, with the shutdown of McColo. However, we have only taught the spammers that they can’t keep their eggs in one basket.
The real question will be “When will Malware hit mobile hard?” It’s gonna happen. The “Mellisa” virus of phones will prompt better security measures. Add to that the Spam levels increasing on a mobile phone. More reason to protect your phone and back it up.
Not much more I can say on that.
In the end, we had some great predictions and some unexpected come through. Bing, for example, made us think about searching. Rupert Murdoch did, too. Yugo is still on a destructive path. Cloud computing is being worked on, but is not at a level some would like to see. Social media has changed to a more “Real time” approach. Data centers still are striving to get more green.
Thanks for walking with me on last years predictions. I have already received a bevy of email for this years’ predictions. If you want to add yours – [email protected]